AAPL

Technology

Apple Inc.

$234.60-0.82 (-0.3%)

Earnings12d

ATM IV26.2%

VRP+10.6

Delayed / Illustrativesrc: snapshot · as of 6/23/2026, 9:11:29 AM· illustrative snapshot

Expiry

Expected move±6.2%$219.95 – $249.25

ATM straddle$17.23× 0.85 method

IV method$21.62S·σ·√(30/365)

ATM IV32.1%

Days to expiry302026-07-23

IV crush (est.)~40%post-event

Earnings insideMarket is pricing ±6.2% into 2026-07-23. IV likely crushes ~40% overnight regardless of direction, a right directional call can still lose long premium.?

Your view vs the market, where the edge lives

implied (Q) your view

⚠ Raw density dipped to -9.14e-4 (clipped to zero).

Hover to read the market's odds vs your odds at any price. Green = you assign more probability than the market is pricing; red = less. The implied curve is risk-neutral (Q), not real-world odds, see the VRP panel.

Price · with expected-move band

Volatility · IV vs Realized

ATM implied32.1%

Realized 21d23.7%

Realized 30d21.5%

VRP (IV − RV)+10.6 pts

Implied > realized: options are pricing more vol than the stock has been delivering. The market is paying you to be short vol, but it's a premium for bearing risk, not free money.

Implied-vol smile · 2026-07-23

Fundamentals

CIK 0000320193

Revenue (TTM)

$416B

TTM

Net income (TTM)

$102B

TTM

Net margin

24.5%

TTM

Recent filings · SEC EDGAR

10-QMay 30, 2026 8-KMay 30, 2026 10-KNov 25, 2025

Models

Save your scenarios as named models, then reload them here or stack them in the Arena.

Your view · distribution studio

Bull

target

30%

Base

target

40%

Bear

target

30%

Conviction (band width)1.00×

Lower = tighter, more confident scenarios. Higher = wider error bars.

Edge · expected value

Market's expected price is $235.35 (the risk-neutral forward). Your view implies $235.35 - -0.0% edge.

Structure	Cost	EV	Edge	POP
Long stock	$234.60	$235.35	-0.0%	49%
Long 30D 235 call (ATM)	$8.79	$9.21	+4.8%	37%
Long 30D 245 call (OTM)	$4.61	$4.98	+8.0%	27%
Long 30D 235 put (ATM)◆ best	$8.44	$8.87	+5.0%	35%

Half-Kelly size?no bet

Long 30D 235 put (ATM): Negative-EV under your view at this price. Don't press it.

The Street · analyst models

43 analysts?

Mean target · ~12mo$258.99+10.4% vs spot

Buy

$259

$199

now $235

$330

Range $199–$330 · 51% spread (wide disagreement)

27 buy10 hold6 sellnext-Q EPS est $7.23 ($6.72–$7.81)

Seed Bull/Base/Bear from the Street, scaled to your selected expiry.

AI analyst · anchored scenario tree

Anchored to implied

The model is handed the options-implied (risk-neutral) probabilities as a base rate and must anchor to them. We never surface a bare model probability, production LLMs are systematically overconfident, so we correct for it by construction.

Set ANTHROPIC_API_KEY to enable the AI analyst. The rest of the terminal works without it.