Equity research · in distributions
Your terminal tells you the number.
Riptide tells you the odds.
Every research tool ships a point estimate where the honest answer is a distribution. Riptide puts your view and the options-implied distribution on one axis, quantifies the gap as expected value, sizes the bet with half-Kelly, and scores your calibration over time.
Open SPY or press ⌘K for any ticker
SPY · 30d · implied vs viewedge +3.1%
Distributions
Not a number, a shape
The market's full risk-neutral density from the live option chain, Breeden-Litzenberger, overlaid with your own view.
Expected value
Research that ends in a bet
Every thesis resolves to EV and a half-Kelly size, not a price target. A name can be a buy when consensus is the modal case.
Calibration
Were your odds any good?
Score your own probabilistic calls with a Brier score and reliability diagram. Process over outcome.
Watchlist · implied vol & expected move
full edge screener →| Ticker | Last | Chg | ATM IV | RV 30d | VRP | Exp move | Earnings |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TSLATesla Inc. | $412.80 | +0.2% | 63.1% | 40.8% | +22.4 | ±12.3% | soon |
| NVDANVIDIA Corp. | $178.30 | +0.2% | 54.5% | 34.6% | +19.9 | ±10.6% | soon |
| METAMeta Platforms Inc. | $642.10 | +0.2% | 39.7% | 20.7% | +19.0 | ±7.7% | soon |
| AMDAdvanced Micro Devices | $168.50 | +0.0% | 52.7% | 40.0% | +12.8 | ±10.3% | soon |
| MSFTMicrosoft Corp. | $478.20 | -0.2% | 29.0% | 16.8% | +12.3 | ±5.6% | soon |
| AAPLApple Inc. | $234.60 | -0.3% | 32.1% | 21.5% | +10.6 | ±6.2% | soon |
| QQQInvesco QQQ Trust | $538.90 | +0.1% | 17.0% | 13.4% | +3.7 | ±3.3% | - |
| SPYSPDR S&P 500 ETF | $612.40 | +0.4% | 12.3% | 11.6% | +0.7 | ±2.4% | - |