RIPTIDE
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SPY$612.40+0.4%AAPL$234.60-0.3%NVDA$178.30+0.2%QQQ$538.90+0.1%TSLA$412.80+0.2%MSFT$478.20-0.2%AMD$168.50+0.0%META$642.10+0.2%

TSLA

Autos
Tesla Inc.
$412.80+0.80 (+0.2%)
Earnings18d
ATM IV57.2%
VRP+22.4
Delayed / Illustrativesrc: snapshot · as of 6/23/2026, 9:02:54 AM· illustrative snapshot
Expiry
Expected move±12.3%$362.17 – $463.43
ATM straddle$59.56× 0.85 method
IV method$74.68S·σ·√(30/365)
ATM IV63.1%
Days to expiry302026-07-23
IV crush (est.)~40%post-event
Earnings insideMarket is pricing ±12.3% into 2026-07-23. IV likely crushes ~40% overnight regardless of direction, a right directional call can still lose long premium.?

Your view vs the market, where the edge lives

implied (Q) your view
$300$400$500$600FSBBB

⚠ Raw density dipped to -2.79e-3 (clipped to zero).

Hover to read the market's odds vs your odds at any price. Green = you assign more probability than the market is pricing; red = less. The implied curve is risk-neutral (Q), not real-world odds, see the VRP panel.

Price · with expected-move band

$463$362$400$500$600$700$800Jul 7Oct 31Feb 26Jun 23

Volatility · IV vs Realized

?
ATM implied63.1%
Realized 21d46.5%
Realized 30d40.8%
VRP (IV − RV)+22.4 pts

Implied > realized: options are pricing more vol than the stock has been delivering. The market is paying you to be short vol, but it's a premium for bearing risk, not free money.

Implied-vol smile · 2026-07-23
60%70%80%$300$350$400$450$500$550

Fundamentals

CIK 0001318605
Revenue (TTM)
$102.3B
TTM
Net income (TTM)
$8.9B
TTM
Net margin
8.7%
TTM
Models

Save your scenarios as named models, then reload them here or stack them in the Arena.

Your view · distribution studio

?
Bull
target
30%
Base
target
40%
Bear
target
30%
Conviction (band width)1.00×

Lower = tighter, more confident scenarios. Higher = wider error bars.

Edge · expected value

?

Market's expected price is $414.26 (the risk-neutral forward). Your view implies $414.26 - -0.0% edge.

StructureCostEVEdgePOP
Long stock$412.80$414.26-0.0%50%
Long 30D 415 call (ATM)$29.41$26.36-10.4%34%
Long 30D 435 call (OTM)$20.93$17.73-15.3%29%
Long 30D 415 put (ATM)$30.15$27.10-10.1%34%
Half-Kelly size?no bet

No positive-edge defined-risk structure under your current view.

The Street · analyst models

26 analysts?
Mean target · ~12mo$460.50+11.6% vs spot
Hold
$461
$286
now $413
$665
Range $286–$665 · 82% spread (wide disagreement)
15 buy5 hold6 sellnext-Q EPS est $2.69 ($2.50–$2.91)
Seed Bull/Base/Bear from the Street, scaled to your selected expiry.

AI analyst · anchored scenario tree

Anchored to implied

The model is handed the options-implied (risk-neutral) probabilities as a base rate and must anchor to them. We never surface a bare model probability, production LLMs are systematically overconfident, so we correct for it by construction.

Set ANTHROPIC_API_KEY to enable the AI analyst. The rest of the terminal works without it.