SPY
IndexYour view vs the market, where the edge lives
⚠ Raw density dipped to -2.64e-4 (clipped to zero).
Hover to read the market's odds vs your odds at any price. Green = you assign more probability than the market is pricing; red = less. The implied curve is risk-neutral (Q), not real-world odds, see the VRP panel.
Price · with expected-move band
Volatility · IV vs Realized
?Implied ≈ realized: little volatility risk premium to harvest here.
Fundamentals
CIK 0000884394Save your scenarios as named models, then reload them here or stack them in the Arena.
Your view · distribution studio
Lower = tighter, more confident scenarios. Higher = wider error bars.
Edge · expected value
?Market's expected price is $613.96 (the risk-neutral forward). Your view implies $613.96 - +0.0% edge.
| Structure | Cost | EV | Edge | POP |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Long stock | $612.40 | $613.96 | +0.0% | 49% |
| Long 30D 615 call (ATM) | $8.10 | $15.56 | +92.1% | 41% |
| Long 30D 645 call (OTM) | $0.52 | $5.10 | +881.1% | 22% |
| Long 30D 615 put (ATM)◆ best | $9.13 | $16.60 | +81.8% | 42% |
Long 30D 615 put (ATM): Negative-EV under your view at this price. Don't press it.
The Street · analyst models
AI analyst · anchored scenario tree
Anchored to impliedThe model is handed the options-implied (risk-neutral) probabilities as a base rate and must anchor to them. We never surface a bare model probability, production LLMs are systematically overconfident, so we correct for it by construction.