Calibration scorecard
?When you say 60%, does it happen ~60% of the time? Brier score measures that (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip answered "50%"). Seeded here with historical resolved calls; log your own from any ticker's studio.
Brier score0.22427 resolved of 27
Overconfidence index+8.3 ptsSystematically overconfident
Open calls0awaiting resolution
Reliability diagram
below diagonal = overconfidentTracked calls
| Logged | Call | You | Market | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 14, 2026 | SPY: Finishes the month above the forward | 90% | 78% | Hit |
| Jul 5, 2026 | MSFT: Holds $450 through monthly expiry | 90% | 78% | Hit |
| Jun 26, 2026 | AAPL: Beats consensus EPS into the print | 85% | 75% | Hit |
| Jun 17, 2026 | TSLA: Exceeds the implied move on earnings | 85% | 75% | Miss |
| Jun 8, 2026 | NVDA: Closes above forward at Feb expiry | 80% | 71% | Hit |
| May 30, 2026 | QQQ: Positive over the next 30 days | 80% | 71% | Hit |
| May 21, 2026 | AMD: Holds the 200-day on the quarter | 80% | 71% | Miss |
| May 12, 2026 | META: Implied move under-prices the print | 70% | 64% | Hit |
| May 3, 2026 | SPY: Stays inside the 1-sigma band | 70% | 64% | Hit |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NVDA: Gaps up post-earnings | 70% | 64% | Miss |
| Apr 15, 2026 | AAPL: Outperforms QQQ over the month | 65% | 61% | Hit |
| Apr 6, 2026 | TSLA: Finishes above $250 | 65% | 61% | Miss |
| Mar 28, 2026 | MSFT: Beats on cloud revenue | 60% | 57% | Hit |
| Mar 19, 2026 | AMD: Above forward at expiry | 60% | 57% | Miss |
| Mar 10, 2026 | QQQ: Realized vol stays under implied | 60% | 57% | Hit |
| Mar 1, 2026 | META: Closes the gap within two weeks | 60% | 57% | Miss |
| Feb 20, 2026 | SPY: Up week into FOMC | 55% | 54% | Hit |
| Feb 11, 2026 | NVDA: Implied move is too rich | 55% | 54% | Miss |
| Feb 2, 2026 | AAPL: Flat-to-up on guidance | 50% | 50% | Hit |
| Jan 24, 2026 | TSLA: Delivers above whisper number | 50% | 50% | Miss |
| Jan 15, 2026 | AMD: Reclaims prior high on the quarter | 45% | 47% | Hit |
| Jan 6, 2026 | META: Beats and holds the move | 45% | 47% | Miss |
| Dec 28, 2025 | TSLA: Doubles the implied move | 35% | 40% | Miss |
| Dec 19, 2025 | NVDA: Tags the upper expected-move band | 35% | 40% | Hit |
| Dec 10, 2025 | AMD: Breaks out above range | 30% | 36% | Miss |
| Dec 1, 2025 | SPY: Down 5% on the month | 30% | 36% | Miss |
| Nov 22, 2025 | QQQ: Corrects more than 7% | 25% | 33% | Miss |