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SPY$612.40+0.4%AAPL$234.60-0.3%NVDA$178.30+0.2%QQQ$538.90+0.1%TSLA$412.80+0.2%MSFT$478.20-0.2%AMD$168.50+0.0%META$642.10+0.2%

NVDA

Semiconductors
NVIDIA Corp.
$178.30+0.34 (+0.2%)
Earnings9d
ATM IV48.5%
VRP+19.9
Delayed / Illustrativesrc: snapshot · as of 6/23/2026, 9:08:18 AM· illustrative snapshot
Expiry
Expected move±10.6%$159.40 – $197.20
ATM straddle$22.23× 0.85 method
IV method$27.79S·σ·√(30/365)
ATM IV54.4%
Days to expiry302026-07-23
IV crush (est.)~40%post-event
Earnings insideMarket is pricing ±10.6% into 2026-07-23. IV likely crushes ~40% overnight regardless of direction, a right directional call can still lose long premium.?

Your view vs the market, where the edge lives

implied (Q) your view
$120$140$160$180$200$220$240$260FSBBB

⚠ Raw density dipped to -2.82e-3 (clipped to zero).

Hover to read the market's odds vs your odds at any price. Green = you assign more probability than the market is pricing; red = less. The implied curve is risk-neutral (Q), not real-world odds, see the VRP panel.

Price · with expected-move band

$197$159$120$140$160$180$200Jul 7Oct 31Feb 26Jun 23

Volatility · IV vs Realized

?
ATM implied54.5%
Realized 21d38.8%
Realized 30d34.6%
VRP (IV − RV)+19.9 pts

Implied > realized: options are pricing more vol than the stock has been delivering. The market is paying you to be short vol, but it's a premium for bearing risk, not free money.

Implied-vol smile · 2026-07-23
50%60%70%$120$140$160$180$200$220$240

Fundamentals

CIK 0001045810
Revenue (TTM)
$148.5B
TTM
Net income (TTM)
$84.3B
TTM
Net margin
56.8%
TTM
Models

Save your scenarios as named models, then reload them here or stack them in the Arena.

Your view · distribution studio

?
Bull
target
30%
Base
target
40%
Bear
target
30%
Conviction (band width)1.00×

Lower = tighter, more confident scenarios. Higher = wider error bars.

Edge · expected value

?

Market's expected price is $178.93 (the risk-neutral forward). Your view implies $178.93 - -0.0% edge.

StructureCostEVEdgePOP
Long stock$178.30$178.93-0.0%49%
Long 30D 180 call (ATM)$10.58$9.69-8.4%34%
Long 30D 190 call (OTM)$6.53$5.59-14.3%27%
Long 30D 180 put (ATM)$11.65$10.75-7.7%35%
Half-Kelly size?no bet

No positive-edge defined-risk structure under your current view.

The Street · analyst models

45 analysts?
Mean target · ~12mo$191.45+7.4% vs spot
Hold
$191
$127
now $178
$268
Range $127–$268 · 73% spread (wide disagreement)
23 buy12 hold10 sellnext-Q EPS est $1.81 ($1.68–$1.95)
Seed Bull/Base/Bear from the Street, scaled to your selected expiry.

AI analyst · anchored scenario tree

Anchored to implied

The model is handed the options-implied (risk-neutral) probabilities as a base rate and must anchor to them. We never surface a bare model probability, production LLMs are systematically overconfident, so we correct for it by construction.

Set ANTHROPIC_API_KEY to enable the AI analyst. The rest of the terminal works without it.