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SPY$612.40+0.4%AAPL$234.60-0.3%NVDA$178.30+0.2%QQQ$538.90+0.1%TSLA$412.80+0.2%MSFT$478.20-0.2%AMD$168.50+0.0%META$642.10+0.2%

MSFT

Technology
Microsoft Corp.
$478.20-0.96 (-0.2%)
Earnings21d
ATM IV23.1%
VRP+12.3
Delayed / Illustrativesrc: snapshot · as of 6/23/2026, 9:02:19 AM· illustrative snapshot
Expiry
Expected move±5.6%$451.22 – $505.18
ATM straddle$31.74× 0.85 method
IV method$39.80S·σ·√(30/365)
ATM IV29.0%
Days to expiry302026-07-23
IV crush (est.)~40%post-event
Earnings insideMarket is pricing ±5.6% into 2026-07-23. IV likely crushes ~40% overnight regardless of direction, a right directional call can still lose long premium.?

Your view vs the market, where the edge lives

implied (Q) your view
$350$400$450$500$550$600FSBBB

⚠ Raw density dipped to -8.98e-4 (clipped to zero).

Hover to read the market's odds vs your odds at any price. Green = you assign more probability than the market is pricing; red = less. The implied curve is risk-neutral (Q), not real-world odds, see the VRP panel.

Price · with expected-move band

$505$451$450$500$550Jul 7Oct 31Feb 26Jun 23

Volatility · IV vs Realized

?
ATM implied29.0%
Realized 21d17.9%
Realized 30d16.8%
VRP (IV − RV)+12.3 pts

Implied > realized: options are pricing more vol than the stock has been delivering. The market is paying you to be short vol, but it's a premium for bearing risk, not free money.

Implied-vol smile · 2026-07-23
30%40%50%$300$400$500$600

Fundamentals

CIK 0000789019
Revenue (TTM)
$281.7B
TTM
Net income (TTM)
$104.5B
TTM
Net margin
37.1%
TTM
Models

Save your scenarios as named models, then reload them here or stack them in the Arena.

Your view · distribution studio

?
Bull
target
30%
Base
target
40%
Bear
target
30%
Conviction (band width)1.00×

Lower = tighter, more confident scenarios. Higher = wider error bars.

Edge · expected value

?

Market's expected price is $479.62 (the risk-neutral forward). Your view implies $479.62 - +0.0% edge.

StructureCostEVEdgePOP
Long stock$478.20$479.62+0.0%51%
Long 30D 480 call (ATM)◆ best$15.68$17.12+9.2%36%
Long 30D 505 call (OTM)$6.24$7.38+18.2%25%
Long 30D 480 put (ATM)$16.06$17.50+8.9%37%
Half-Kelly size?no bet

Long 30D 480 call (ATM): Negative-EV under your view at this price. Don't press it.

The Street · analyst models

32 analysts?
Mean target · ~12mo$534.02+11.7% vs spot
Buy
$534
$417
now $478
$671
Range $417–$671 · 48% spread (wide disagreement)
19 buy9 hold4 sellnext-Q EPS est $3.99 ($3.71–$4.31)
Seed Bull/Base/Bear from the Street, scaled to your selected expiry.

AI analyst · anchored scenario tree

Anchored to implied

The model is handed the options-implied (risk-neutral) probabilities as a base rate and must anchor to them. We never surface a bare model probability, production LLMs are systematically overconfident, so we correct for it by construction.

Set ANTHROPIC_API_KEY to enable the AI analyst. The rest of the terminal works without it.