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SPY$612.40+0.4%AAPL$234.60-0.3%NVDA$178.30+0.2%QQQ$538.90+0.1%TSLA$412.80+0.2%MSFT$478.20-0.2%AMD$168.50+0.0%META$642.10+0.2%AMZN$226.40+0.2%GOOGL$201.80+0.0%AVGO$342.70+0.2%NFLX$124.60+0.1%JPM$289.30-0.1%LLY$782.50+0.1%COIN$329.80-0.4%PLTR$184.20+0.1%

NFLX

Communication
Netflix Inc.
$124.60+0.11 (+0.1%)
Earnings26d
ATM IV35.4%
VRP+6.0
Delayed / Illustrativesrc: snapshot · as of 10/13/2026, 12:14:57 PM· illustrative snapshot
Expiry
Expected move±8.0%$114.59 – $134.61
ATM straddle$11.78× 0.85 method
IV method$14.78S·σ·√(30/365)
ATM IV41.4%
Days to expiry302026-11-12
IV crush (est.)~40%post-event
Earnings insideMarket is pricing ±8.0% into 2026-11-12. IV likely crushes ~40% overnight regardless of direction, a right directional call can still lose long premium.?

Your view vs the market, where the edge lives

implied (Q) your view
$80$100$120$140$160FSBBB

⚠ Raw density dipped to -1.33e-3 (clipped to zero).

Hover to read the market's odds vs your odds at any price. Green = you assign more probability than the market is pricing; red = less. The implied curve is risk-neutral (Q), not real-world odds, see the VRP panel.

Price · with expected-move band

$135$115$110$120$130$140Oct 27Feb 20Jun 18Oct 13

Volatility · IV vs Realized

?
ATM implied41.4%
Realized 21d38.6%
Realized 30d35.3%
VRP (IV − RV)+6.0 pts

Implied > realized: options are pricing more vol than the stock has been delivering. The market is paying you to be short vol, but it's a premium for bearing risk, not free money.

Implied-vol smile · 2026-11-12
40%45%50%55%60%$80$100$120$140$160

Fundamentals

CIK 0001065280
Revenue (TTM)
$43.5B
TTM
Net income (TTM)
$10.1B
TTM
Net margin
23.2%
TTM
Models

Save your scenarios as named models, then reload them here or stack them in the Arena.

Your view · distribution studio

?
Bull
target
30%
Base
target
40%
Bear
target
30%
Conviction (band width)1.00×

Lower = tighter, more confident scenarios. Higher = wider error bars.

Edge · expected value

?

Market's expected price is $125.04 (the risk-neutral forward). Your view implies $125.04 - -0.0% edge.

StructureCostEVEdgePOP
Long stock$124.60$125.04-0.0%49%
Long 30D 125 call (ATM)$5.91$5.75-2.7%36%
Long 30D 130 call (OTM)$3.77$3.57-5.3%29%
Long 30D 125 put (ATM)$5.87$5.71-2.7%34%
Half-Kelly size?no bet

No positive-edge defined-risk structure under your current view.

The Street · analyst models

31 analysts?
Mean target · ~12mo$129.87+4.2% vs spot
Hold
$130
$94
now $125
$172
Range $94–$172 · 60% spread (wide disagreement)
15 buy6 hold10 sellnext-Q EPS est $1.61 ($1.50–$1.74)
Seed Bull/Base/Bear from the Street, scaled to your selected expiry.

AI analyst · anchored scenario tree

Anchored to implied

The model is handed the options-implied (risk-neutral) probabilities as a base rate and must anchor to them. We never surface a bare model probability, production LLMs are systematically overconfident, so we correct for it by construction.