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SPY$612.40+0.4%AAPL$234.60-0.3%NVDA$178.30+0.2%QQQ$538.90+0.1%TSLA$412.80+0.2%MSFT$478.20-0.2%AMD$168.50+0.0%META$642.10+0.2%AMZN$226.40+0.2%GOOGL$201.80+0.0%AVGO$342.70+0.2%NFLX$124.60+0.1%JPM$289.30-0.1%LLY$782.50+0.1%COIN$329.80-0.4%PLTR$184.20+0.1%

COIN

Financials
Coinbase Global Inc.
$329.80-1.25 (-0.4%)
Earnings16d
ATM IV68.4%
VRP+22.0
Delayed / Illustrativesrc: snapshot · as of 10/13/2026, 12:15:15 PM· illustrative snapshot
Expiry
Expected move±14.4%$282.25 – $377.35
ATM straddle$55.94× 0.85 method
IV method$70.34S·σ·√(30/365)
ATM IV74.4%
Days to expiry302026-11-12
IV crush (est.)~40%post-event
Earnings insideMarket is pricing ±14.4% into 2026-11-12. IV likely crushes ~40% overnight regardless of direction, a right directional call can still lose long premium.?

Your view vs the market, where the edge lives

implied (Q) your view
$200$300$400$500$600FSBBB

⚠ Raw density dipped to -7.97e-3 (clipped to zero).

Hover to read the market's odds vs your odds at any price. Green = you assign more probability than the market is pricing; red = less. The implied curve is risk-neutral (Q), not real-world odds, see the VRP panel.

Price · with expected-move band

$377$282$200$250$300$350$400Oct 27Feb 20Jun 18Oct 13

Volatility · IV vs Realized

?
ATM implied74.4%
Realized 21d48.0%
Realized 30d52.4%
VRP (IV − RV)+22.0 pts

Implied > realized: options are pricing more vol than the stock has been delivering. The market is paying you to be short vol, but it's a premium for bearing risk, not free money.

Implied-vol smile · 2026-11-12
70%80%90%$250$300$350$400$450

Fundamentals

CIK 0001679788
Revenue (TTM)
$7.2B
TTM
Net income (TTM)
$2.6B
TTM
Net margin
36.1%
TTM
Models

Save your scenarios as named models, then reload them here or stack them in the Arena.

Your view · distribution studio

?
Bull
target
30%
Base
target
40%
Bear
target
30%
Conviction (band width)1.00×

Lower = tighter, more confident scenarios. Higher = wider error bars.

Edge · expected value

?

Market's expected price is $330.97 (the risk-neutral forward). Your view implies $330.97 - -0.0% edge.

StructureCostEVEdgePOP
Long stock$329.80$330.97-0.0%51%
Long 30D 330 call (ATM)$28.45$25.03-12.0%33%
Long 30D 350 call (OTM)$20.06$16.42-18.1%29%
Long 30D 330 put (ATM)$27.49$24.07-12.4%32%
Half-Kelly size?no bet

No positive-edge defined-risk structure under your current view.

The Street · analyst models

31 analysts?
Mean target · ~12mo$362.98+10.1% vs spot
Hold
$363
$207
now $330
$547
Range $207–$547 · 94% spread (wide disagreement)
12 buy10 hold9 sellnext-Q EPS est $2.79 ($2.59–$3.01)
Seed Bull/Base/Bear from the Street, scaled to your selected expiry.

AI analyst · anchored scenario tree

Anchored to implied

The model is handed the options-implied (risk-neutral) probabilities as a base rate and must anchor to them. We never surface a bare model probability, production LLMs are systematically overconfident, so we correct for it by construction.