Sample data
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SPY$612.40+0.4%AAPL$234.60-0.3%NVDA$178.30+0.2%QQQ$538.90+0.1%TSLA$412.80+0.2%MSFT$478.20-0.2%AMD$168.50+0.0%META$642.10+0.2%AMZN$226.40+0.2%GOOGL$201.80+0.0%AVGO$342.70+0.2%NFLX$124.60+0.1%JPM$289.30-0.1%LLY$782.50+0.1%COIN$329.80-0.4%PLTR$184.20+0.1%

JPM

Financials
JPMorgan Chase & Co.
$289.30-0.24 (-0.1%)
Earnings23d
ATM IV23.8%
VRP+14.9
Delayed / Illustrativesrc: snapshot · as of 10/13/2026, 12:15:01 PM· illustrative snapshot
Expiry
Expected move±5.8%$272.60 – $306.00
ATM straddle$19.65× 0.85 method
IV method$24.67S·σ·√(30/365)
ATM IV29.7%
Days to expiry302026-11-12
IV crush (est.)~40%post-event
Earnings insideMarket is pricing ±5.8% into 2026-11-12. IV likely crushes ~40% overnight regardless of direction, a right directional call can still lose long premium.?

Your view vs the market, where the edge lives

implied (Q) your view
$220$240$260$280$300$320$340FBBB

⚠ Raw density dipped to -8.42e-4 (clipped to zero).

Hover to read the market's odds vs your odds at any price. Green = you assign more probability than the market is pricing; red = less. The implied curve is risk-neutral (Q), not real-world odds, see the VRP panel.

Price · with expected-move band

$306$273$260$280$300Oct 27Feb 20Jun 18Oct 13

Volatility · IV vs Realized

?
ATM implied29.8%
Realized 21d16.7%
Realized 30d14.8%
VRP (IV − RV)+14.9 pts

Implied > realized: options are pricing more vol than the stock has been delivering. The market is paying you to be short vol, but it's a premium for bearing risk, not free money.

Implied-vol smile · 2026-11-12
30%40%50%$200$250$300$350$400

Fundamentals

CIK 0000019617
Revenue (TTM)
$177B
TTM
Net income (TTM)
$58.5B
TTM
Net margin
33.1%
TTM
Models

Save your scenarios as named models, then reload them here or stack them in the Arena.

Your view · distribution studio

?
Bull
target
30%
Base
target
40%
Bear
target
30%
Conviction (band width)1.00×

Lower = tighter, more confident scenarios. Higher = wider error bars.

Edge · expected value

?

Market's expected price is $289.87 (the risk-neutral forward). Your view implies $289.87 - -0.0% edge.

StructureCostEVEdgePOP
Long stock$289.30$289.87-0.0%49%
Long 30D 290 call (ATM)◆ best$9.76$10.54+8.0%35%
Long 30D 305 call (OTM)$3.94$4.64+17.8%25%
Long 30D 290 put (ATM)$9.89$10.67+7.9%37%
Half-Kelly size?no bet

Long 30D 290 call (ATM): Negative-EV under your view at this price. Don't press it.

The Street · analyst models

42 analysts?
Mean target · ~12mo$318.97+10.3% vs spot
Hold
$319
$248
now $289
$402
Range $248–$402 · 48% spread (wide disagreement)
22 buy10 hold10 sellnext-Q EPS est $5.91 ($5.50–$6.38)
Seed Bull/Base/Bear from the Street, scaled to your selected expiry.

AI analyst · anchored scenario tree

Anchored to implied

The model is handed the options-implied (risk-neutral) probabilities as a base rate and must anchor to them. We never surface a bare model probability, production LLMs are systematically overconfident, so we correct for it by construction.