Sample data
Exit
RIPTIDE
Demo
SPY$612.40+0.4%AAPL$234.60-0.3%NVDA$178.30+0.2%QQQ$538.90+0.1%TSLA$412.80+0.2%MSFT$478.20-0.2%AMD$168.50+0.0%META$642.10+0.2%AMZN$226.40+0.2%GOOGL$201.80+0.0%AVGO$342.70+0.2%NFLX$124.60+0.1%JPM$289.30-0.1%LLY$782.50+0.1%COIN$329.80-0.4%PLTR$184.20+0.1%

GOOGL

Technology
Alphabet Inc.
$201.80+0.03 (+0.0%)
Earnings18d
ATM IV28.7%
VRP+12.9
Delayed / Illustrativesrc: snapshot · as of 10/13/2026, 12:15:15 PM· illustrative snapshot
Expiry
Expected move±6.8%$188.10 – $215.50
ATM straddle$16.12× 0.85 method
IV method$20.19S·σ·√(30/365)
ATM IV34.9%
Days to expiry302026-11-12
IV crush (est.)~40%post-event
Earnings insideMarket is pricing ±6.8% into 2026-11-12. IV likely crushes ~40% overnight regardless of direction, a right directional call can still lose long premium.?

Your view vs the market, where the edge lives

implied (Q) your view
$140$160$180$200$220$240$260FSBBB

⚠ Raw density dipped to -2.21e-3 (clipped to zero).

Hover to read the market's odds vs your odds at any price. Green = you assign more probability than the market is pricing; red = less. The implied curve is risk-neutral (Q), not real-world odds, see the VRP panel.

Price · with expected-move band

$216$188$180$200$220$240$260$280Oct 27Feb 20Jun 18Oct 13

Volatility · IV vs Realized

?
ATM implied34.6%
Realized 21d21.1%
Realized 30d21.8%
VRP (IV − RV)+12.9 pts

Implied > realized: options are pricing more vol than the stock has been delivering. The market is paying you to be short vol, but it's a premium for bearing risk, not free money.

Implied-vol smile · 2026-11-12
35%40%45%50%$140$160$180$200$220$240$260$280

Fundamentals

CIK 0001652044
Revenue (TTM)
$350B
TTM
Net income (TTM)
$100.1B
TTM
Net margin
28.6%
TTM
Models

Save your scenarios as named models, then reload them here or stack them in the Arena.

Your view · distribution studio

?
Bull
target
30%
Base
target
40%
Bear
target
30%
Conviction (band width)1.00×

Lower = tighter, more confident scenarios. Higher = wider error bars.

Edge · expected value

?

Market's expected price is $202.45 (the risk-neutral forward). Your view implies $202.45 - +0.0% edge.

StructureCostEVEdgePOP
Long stock$201.80$202.45+0.0%49%
Long 30D 200 call (ATM)◆ best$9.28$9.50+2.3%38%
Long 30D 215 call (OTM)$3.22$3.34+3.7%24%
Long 30D 200 put (ATM)$6.84$7.05+3.1%33%
Half-Kelly size?no bet

Long 30D 200 call (ATM): Negative-EV under your view at this price. Don't press it.

The Street · analyst models

34 analysts?
Mean target · ~12mo$219.31+8.7% vs spot
Hold
$219
$166
now $202
$282
Range $166–$282 · 53% spread (wide disagreement)
15 buy8 hold11 sellnext-Q EPS est $1.59 ($1.48–$1.72)
Seed Bull/Base/Bear from the Street, scaled to your selected expiry.

AI analyst · anchored scenario tree

Anchored to implied

The model is handed the options-implied (risk-neutral) probabilities as a base rate and must anchor to them. We never surface a bare model probability, production LLMs are systematically overconfident, so we correct for it by construction.