Sample data
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SPY$612.40+0.4%AAPL$234.60-0.3%NVDA$178.30+0.2%QQQ$538.90+0.1%TSLA$412.80+0.2%MSFT$478.20-0.2%AMD$168.50+0.0%META$642.10+0.2%AMZN$226.40+0.2%GOOGL$201.80+0.0%AVGO$342.70+0.2%NFLX$124.60+0.1%JPM$289.30-0.1%LLY$782.50+0.1%COIN$329.80-0.4%PLTR$184.20+0.1%

PLTR

Technology
Palantir Technologies
$184.20+0.25 (+0.1%)
Earnings13d
ATM IV51.1%
VRP+16.8
Delayed / Illustrativesrc: snapshot · as of 10/13/2026, 12:14:57 PM· illustrative snapshot
Expiry
Expected move±11.1%$163.76 – $204.64
ATM straddle$24.05× 0.85 method
IV method$30.16S·σ·√(30/365)
ATM IV57.1%
Days to expiry302026-11-12
IV crush (est.)~40%post-event
Earnings insideMarket is pricing ±11.1% into 2026-11-12. IV likely crushes ~40% overnight regardless of direction, a right directional call can still lose long premium.?

Your view vs the market, where the edge lives

implied (Q) your view
$150$200$250FSBBB

⚠ Raw density dipped to -4.73e-3 (clipped to zero).

Hover to read the market's odds vs your odds at any price. Green = you assign more probability than the market is pricing; red = less. The implied curve is risk-neutral (Q), not real-world odds, see the VRP panel.

Price · with expected-move band

$205$164$160$180$200$220$240Oct 27Feb 20Jun 18Oct 13

Volatility · IV vs Realized

?
ATM implied57.1%
Realized 21d39.3%
Realized 30d40.4%
VRP (IV − RV)+16.8 pts

Implied > realized: options are pricing more vol than the stock has been delivering. The market is paying you to be short vol, but it's a premium for bearing risk, not free money.

Implied-vol smile · 2026-11-12
60%70%80%$120$140$160$180$200$220$240

Fundamentals

CIK 0001321655
Revenue (TTM)
$4.5B
TTM
Net income (TTM)
$1.3B
TTM
Net margin
27.8%
TTM
Models

Save your scenarios as named models, then reload them here or stack them in the Arena.

Your view · distribution studio

?
Bull
target
30%
Base
target
40%
Bear
target
30%
Conviction (band width)1.00×

Lower = tighter, more confident scenarios. Higher = wider error bars.

Edge · expected value

?

Market's expected price is $184.85 (the risk-neutral forward). Your view implies $184.85 - -0.0% edge.

StructureCostEVEdgePOP
Long stock$184.20$184.85-0.0%49%
Long 30D 185 call (ATM)$11.95$10.89-8.9%33%
Long 30D 195 call (OTM)$7.81$6.63-15.1%29%
Long 30D 185 put (ATM)$12.10$11.03-8.8%35%
Half-Kelly size?no bet

No positive-edge defined-risk structure under your current view.

The Street · analyst models

23 analysts?
Mean target · ~12mo$209.70+13.8% vs spot
Hold
$210
$136
now $184
$296
Range $136–$296 · 76% spread (wide disagreement)
11 buy6 hold6 sellnext-Q EPS est $4.43 ($4.12–$4.78)
Seed Bull/Base/Bear from the Street, scaled to your selected expiry.

AI analyst · anchored scenario tree

Anchored to implied

The model is handed the options-implied (risk-neutral) probabilities as a base rate and must anchor to them. We never surface a bare model probability, production LLMs are systematically overconfident, so we correct for it by construction.