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SPY$612.40+0.4%AAPL$234.60-0.3%NVDA$178.30+0.2%QQQ$538.90+0.1%TSLA$412.80+0.2%MSFT$478.20-0.2%AMD$168.50+0.0%META$642.10+0.2%AMZN$226.40+0.2%GOOGL$201.80+0.0%AVGO$342.70+0.2%NFLX$124.60+0.1%JPM$289.30-0.1%LLY$782.50+0.1%COIN$329.80-0.4%PLTR$184.20+0.1%

AMZN

Consumer
Amazon.com Inc.
$226.40+0.51 (+0.2%)
Earnings21d
ATM IV31.4%
VRP+15.9
Delayed / Illustrativesrc: snapshot · as of 10/13/2026, 12:15:02 PM· illustrative snapshot
Expiry
Expected move±7.3%$209.90 – $242.90
ATM straddle$19.41× 0.85 method
IV method$24.36S·σ·√(30/365)
ATM IV37.5%
Days to expiry302026-11-12
IV crush (est.)~40%post-event
Earnings insideMarket is pricing ±7.3% into 2026-11-12. IV likely crushes ~40% overnight regardless of direction, a right directional call can still lose long premium.?

Your view vs the market, where the edge lives

implied (Q) your view
$160$180$200$220$240$260$280$300FSBBB

⚠ Raw density dipped to -1.69e-3 (clipped to zero).

Hover to read the market's odds vs your odds at any price. Green = you assign more probability than the market is pricing; red = less. The implied curve is risk-neutral (Q), not real-world odds, see the VRP panel.

Price · with expected-move band

$243$210$220$240$260$280$300$320Oct 27Feb 20Jun 18Oct 13

Volatility · IV vs Realized

?
ATM implied37.3%
Realized 21d22.2%
Realized 30d21.4%
VRP (IV − RV)+15.9 pts

Implied > realized: options are pricing more vol than the stock has been delivering. The market is paying you to be short vol, but it's a premium for bearing risk, not free money.

Implied-vol smile · 2026-11-12
35%40%45%50%55%$150$200$250$300

Fundamentals

CIK 0001018724
Revenue (TTM)
$638B
TTM
Net income (TTM)
$59.2B
TTM
Net margin
9.3%
TTM
Models

Save your scenarios as named models, then reload them here or stack them in the Arena.

Your view · distribution studio

?
Bull
target
30%
Base
target
40%
Bear
target
30%
Conviction (band width)1.00×

Lower = tighter, more confident scenarios. Higher = wider error bars.

Edge · expected value

?

Market's expected price is $227.20 (the risk-neutral forward). Your view implies $227.20 - +0.0% edge.

StructureCostEVEdgePOP
Long stock$226.40$227.20+0.0%49%
Long 30D 225 call (ATM)◆ best$10.80$10.83+0.2%37%
Long 30D 240 call (OTM)$4.60$4.52-1.6%25%
Long 30D 225 put (ATM)$8.61$8.63+0.2%35%
Half-Kelly size?no bet

Long 30D 225 call (ATM): Negative-EV under your view at this price. Don't press it.

The Street · analyst models

44 analysts?
Mean target · ~12mo$246.21+8.8% vs spot
Hold
$246
$183
now $226
$321
Range $183–$321 · 56% spread (wide disagreement)
26 buy8 hold10 sellnext-Q EPS est $5.96 ($5.54–$6.44)
Seed Bull/Base/Bear from the Street, scaled to your selected expiry.

AI analyst · anchored scenario tree

Anchored to implied

The model is handed the options-implied (risk-neutral) probabilities as a base rate and must anchor to them. We never surface a bare model probability, production LLMs are systematically overconfident, so we correct for it by construction.